What's this?
This sentence comes from Chapter 58 of the Tao Te Ching. It is twelve words long, but it tells a truth that most people cannot accept in their lifetime:
> Disaster is the support of happiness; happiness is the ambush of disaster.
In today’s words:
> What you think is a bad thing may be the beginning of a good thing. What you think is a good thing may be a foreshadowing of something bad.
> There is no absolute blessing and no absolute disaster.
> A blessing in disguise, not a story, but a rule.
Note that this is not the Ah Q spirit of "having a good attitude". It talks about the core law of systems theory - after any system reaches an extreme state, it will inevitably transform into its opposite. The end of blessing is the beginning of misfortune; the end of misfortune is the turn of fortune.
The "leaning" and "volting" mentioned by Lao Tzu are not metaphors, but physical facts. The second law of thermodynamics tells us: Energy always flows from high temperature to low temperature, and the system always tends to equilibrium. Blessing is high temperature, misfortune is low temperature, they are always flowing into each other.
This is not metaphysics, this is dialectics.
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Why is it important?
Most people live in the world with an illusion: Good things will always be good, and bad things will always be bad.
So they forget everything when times are good and give up in despair when times are bad. What they don't know is that today's blessings are burying tomorrow's disasters; today's disasters are giving birth to tomorrow's blessings.
In the twenty-five years since I came to Europe, I have seen too many people fall into this illusion.
Case 1: The entrepreneur who "had everything going smoothly"
A young man started a business at the age of twenty-five, went public at the age of twenty-eight, and had a net worth of over 100 million at the age of thirty. The media called him an "entrepreneurial prodigy" and investors chased him.
But he forgot what Lao Tzu said - good fortune lies ahead of misfortune. He did three stupid things when he was at his best: first, he attributed all his success to his genius; second, he began to look down on "slow" industries and "stupid" people; third, he stopped learning because "I already understood it."
At the age of thirty-three, the industry experienced a sudden change, and his company’s valuation dropped by 90% in three months. He tried to use the old methods to save the company, but found that the old methods no longer worked - because the world had changed, but he had not changed.
This is the saying of "Blessings and misfortunes" - the most dangerous time is not when you are in the pit, but when you are on the top of the mountain. The wind is strongest at the top of the mountain, and you are most likely to be blown down. In the twenty-five years since I came to Europe, I have seen the worst collapses, not those who have been struggling, but those who "have been going well and then suddenly not."
Case 2: The middle-aged man who was "laid off"
A forty-five-year-old middle manager who had worked in the company for fifteen years was suddenly laid off. It was the financial crisis of 2008. He submitted 200 resumes and only had three interviews, none of which were successful.
He fell into despair. The house needs payment, the children need to go to school, and my wife has just been diagnosed with a chronic disease. He felt like he was finished.
But he did something to "survive from the misfortune" - he used his unemployment time to write an e-book with the industry knowledge he had accumulated over the years. He didn't want to publish it, he just wanted to "sum up his experience over the years."
Three months later, the e-book was reposted by an industry forum. Half a year later, he was hired as a partner by a consulting firm - because they found that his e-book was more professional than many paid reports.
This is the saying that "misfortunes are where blessings depend" - when misfortunes come to an end, blessings begin to grow. The darkest place is closest to dawn. In the twenty-five years since I came to Europe, I have seen the most beautiful rebounds, not those who have always had smooth sailing, but those who were "knocked to the bottom by life and then grew back from the bottom."
Case 3: Bakery in Florence
There is a century-old bakery in Florence that almost went bankrupt during the 2008 financial crisis. The boss did not lay off employees or cut prices - he made a counter-intuitive decision: to use the most expensive bread in the store (a traditional Easter cake priced at 15 euros) as a "signature" and then teach customers how to make it for free.
Everyone said he was crazy - "If you teach me the secret recipe, who will buy it?"
He said: "I don't sell bread, I sell the confidence that 'you can make bread'."
The result? After customers learned how to make bread, they respected the store even more - "They dare to teach you their secret recipes, how confident do you have to be?" Ten years later, this store has become the most famous "baking experience" destination in Florence, with customers flying in from all over the world. That "free teaching" strategy has become their greatest brand asset.
This is where misfortunes come from and blessings depend on - crisis is not the end, but an opportunity to redefine yourself. In the 25 years since I came to Europe, I have seen the longest-lived Italian companies, not those that have never encountered a crisis, but those that have found new ways to survive in crises.
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This reminds me of antifragility and cyclical theory
There are two concepts in modern times, which are completely consistent with Lao Tzu's words.
The first is Antifragile by Nassim Taleb. He said: The real strong person is not to resist pressure, but to grow from pressure. The wind will blow out the candle, but it will keep the fire burning brighter. You want to make a fire, not a candle.
Lao Tzu's "misfortunes are where blessings depend" is the Eastern version of antifragility - misfortunes are not here to destroy you, but to forge you. The difference is: Taleb used mathematics to prove this rule, and I finished it in twelve words.
The second is Howard Marks's "Cycle Theory". He said: The most important thing in investing is not to judge "where you are now", but to judge "where you are in the cycle now." Cycles will always exist - if they rise too much, they will fall; if they fall too much, they will rise. The key is whether you can stay awake during the highs and stay hopeful during the lows.
This is the financial version of "Blessings come with misfortunes" - the most dangerous thing in the bull market is that you think the bull market will never end. In the 25 years since I came to Europe, the smartest investors I have met are not the ones who are the best at making money, but the ones who know best whether things are going too well now.
Even more interesting is Stoicism’s “control dichotomy.” Epictetus said: Some things are within our control and some are not. We should focus on what is controllable and accept what is uncontrollable. This is completely consistent with what Lao Tzu said - when good fortune comes, don't get carried away (it's out of control); when misfortune comes, don't give up in despair (it's also out of control). All you can control is your reaction.
> A blessing in disguise, it's not a blessing - it's not a comfort, it's a rule.
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How to do it?
1. When things are going well, do something "unfavorable"
When blessings come to an end, they become disasters, so you should take the initiative to create a little "unfavorable" for yourself when you are blessed.
- When the company is most profitable, invest in a new project that "may fail".
- When you are in your best health, learn a sport that you are "not good at at all".
- When your relationship is at its sweetest, take a trip alone - to confirm that you can live well alone.
In the 25 years since I came to Europe, I have taught students a principle in the practical business class of pblcoach.com: The "discomfort" in good times is to prevent the "unbearable" in adversity. *
2. In times of adversity, find a "little blessing"
The ultimate misfortune is a blessing, so when you are in misfortune, you should take the initiative to look for the budding blessing.
- Unemployed? I just have time to learn that skill I’ve always wanted to learn.
- Lost in love? Just time to get to know yourself again.
- Sick? I was forced to slow down and discover the overlooked beauty in life.
After coming to Europe for twenty-five years, I discovered that the most resilient people have a habit: They can always find a "little luck" in their worst moments. This is not self-deception, but active training - training yourself to extract value from any situation.
3. Establish "cyclical awareness" and don't think linearly
Most people think in a linear way—good things get better and bad things get worse. But the world operates in cycles.
- Before making a decision, ask yourself: "Is the current 'good' too good?"
- Before making a decision, ask yourself: "Is the current 'bad' situation completely bad?"
- Before making a decision, ask yourself: "If the situation were reversed, would I be ready?"
In the twenty-five years since I came to Europe, I have seen the most powerful entrepreneurs have a habit: They prepare for the worst at the best time and prepare best at the worst time. Not pessimistic or optimistic, but sober.
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when?
"Misfortune lies where blessings depend, and fortune lies where misfortunes lurk" is not chicken soup for the soul, it is the underlying thinking you can use today:
When you feel that you are "too smooth" - stop and check whether there are any seeds of "disaster" buried in your "blessings". Are you too confident? Did you ignore any signals? Are you making the riskiest decisions when you have the best time?
When you feel that you are "too miserable" - tell yourself: When the misfortune comes to an end, the blessings will begin to grow. But there is a premise - you cannot lie down in the pit. You have to do something in the pit to give blessings a place to grow.
When you see others succeed – don’t rush to envy them. Ask yourself: "Among his blessings, are there any misfortunes that I can't see?" Most people only show their blessings, not their misfortunes. The glory you see may just be the high point of the cycle.
When you see others fail – don’t be quick to laugh. Ask yourself: "Among his misfortunes, are there growing blessings?" Today's joke may be tomorrow's legend.
When you have to make a big decision - Ask yourself: "If the results of this decision are contrary to my expectations, can I bear it?" If you can bear it, do it. If you can't bear it, adjust.
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Where?
The rule of this sentence is applicable everywhere.
In physics, the Second Law of Thermodynamics says: Energy always flows from high temperature to low temperature, and the system tends to equilibrium. Blessing is high temperature, misfortune is low temperature, they are always flowing into each other. Lao Tzu used the words "lean" and "volt" two thousand years ago to express the humanistic version of this physical law.
In economics, business cycle is a law that cannot be violated. Booms are followed by recessions, and recessions are followed by recoveries. Keynes said: "The market may remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent." But the cycle will eventually reverse. The entire book "Cycles" by Howard Marks is about "good fortune lies in the shadow of misfortune, and misfortune lies in the presence of good fortune".
In investing, Buffett's "Be greedy when others are fearful, and be fearful when others are greedy" is the best practice. During the 2008 financial crisis, he bought heavily when the market was at its most panicked. When the market went wild in 2019, he hoarded cash. He is not predicting, he is respecting the cycle - the end of blessing is disaster, and the end of disaster is blessing.
In sports, injuries are often opportunities for athletes to transform. After Kobe Bryant suffered a serious injury, he transformed from a "flying style" to a "floor style", which actually extended his career. In the later stages of his career, Federer reduced his serve and net play and switched to playing baseline, winning three Grand Slams. Misfortunes and blessings depend on it - the limitations of the human body force the evolution of technology.
In Italian family businesses, the secret passed down from three generations is not "avoiding crises" but "learning from crises". In the twenty-five years since I came to Europe, I have seen the longest-lived Italian workshops. Each generation has experienced at least one "almost bankruptcy" crisis. But after the crisis, they all emerged stronger—because the crisis forced them to eliminate outdated methods and discover new opportunities. A Florentine leather workshop almost went bankrupt after World War II, but it was on the ruins that they invented the "vegetable tanning" process that later became world-famous. Misfortunes are where blessings depend - without that crisis, there would be no innovation.
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One sentence summary
> A blessing in disguise, not a story, but a rule.
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This article was originally written by Coach Liu. Please indicate the source when reprinting.